What if what happened in Wuhan is about to happen in Europe and the US, the epidemic should be under control within 3 months of the outbreak, depending on the government that is managing the crisis.
The economic downturn of almost an entire economy for 3 months will bring about a global recession, one that will take at least a year to come out of. The deletions of the 2008 crisis took a year to fix.
These are some thoughts about changes that could happen:
1. Decrease in consumption, Decrease in tourism, Decrease in rental prices.
The decrease in consumption is probably due to the decrease in household disposable income. But also because of a change of consciousness.
After three months of not consuming products that no one needs just to feel good, many will feel the world will continue to spin even if they don't buy big brand named clothes or the latest iphone.
Consumption that has fallen the most is that of tourism services. It will take time to overcome the trauma of aircraft being seen as Petri dishes, and the big spend on leisure is also the first expense cut during a recession.
Decrease in rent will also be felt in commercial rental. Retailers will pay less, offices will hire fewer workers in demanding areas. Prices of all the real estate for rent will have dropped.
There are also no queues for the launch of the new iPhone 12, the same goes for almost every consumer product you can think of. The whole world sat at home for three months without buying anything but food and toilet paper, and the sky didn't fall. People haven't visited the mall for months.
What does it look like? More secondhand shopping, swaps, and community use. Discount stores will also flourish during a recession.
2. Remote work
Organizations around the world have prepared work plans for remote access, providing online services. The Corona has accelerated these processes from zero to 100, and since February 2020, a private or governmental institution whose employees do not have remote access and does not provide customer service online, does not exist.
Schools, health funds, banks, municipalities, government agencies, high-tech companies, engineering, even restaurants, if they do not have an online interface for customers and employees, they will not work.
The Initial impact of remote work will be reflected on the roads. More online meetings equals fewer vehicles on the road. Fewer businessmen flying for a presentation is worth less flights. And less flights and less cars worth ... right. Less air pollution, and fewer road accidents.
3. Internet Infrastructure.
Another of the things that will burn in consciousness after the corona is our total dependence on the internet. Countries will have to invest a lot in Internet infrastructure with the network failing in time of crisis as is happening all over the world nowadays. Generation 5, Generation 6, any delay in this issue to date, will be resolved quickly and given the green light. A good period is expected for telecommunications companies. The Corona has put the Internet next to electricity and water as a basic infrastructure for subsistence.
4. Family.
There are many people in the world who have not been with their children for more than two hours every day of their lives and also from seven in the evening to nine. The pandemic has left most of us at home, with the children, with the couple, with the partners or alone. Anyone who lives with the family suddenly spends almost 24 hours a day with their family, even if the residents are in the framework of distance learning and work. Everyone in the same house, eating together, sitting in the living room together, doing school chores, cooking, watching TV, making inventions to pass the time.
The maid no longer comes, the cleaner doesn't either, the kids don't eat in the kindergarten and the adults don't eat at work. The pervasive importance of people to their careers also gets proportionate when their spouses see what they are doing. When there is no one-hour lunch, and all the appointments are zoomed in, and you don't have to travel an hour each way to work, suddenly the day of work is significantly shortened and you can find time for your family. Come on, you're not a doctor.
In the US, there is a trend of baking bread at home. Home cooking has risen by tens of percent in all households and so is the shared meal around the table.So it is true that the Corona is over and the kids are going back to school and we will be back to work, but the spring of 2020 will remain with many of us as a cohesive family experience, one that has brought many stressed, but also many, moments of togetherness A family cell that needs to learn to act, function and get along For many families this has never happened and the Corona is a turning point in this regard.
5. Wars
Who has time for wars when licking the wounds from pandemics?
And who has a budget to turn to security when the government allocates billions (or trillions) to keep the economy alive?
The defense budget will decrease worldwide. Fewer submarine orders from Tysenkorp. Less work for Ronnie Milo and the other arms dealers.
6. Awareness of health and the environment:
Even today when we see a series on television we feel strange seeing people shaking hands, not to mention embracing. It will pass to us when the corona disappears, but the awareness of disease as well as the hygiene and spread of biological disasters will remain after the world envisions one.
On the other hand, it is also possible that Swedish Greta will no longer care about anyone, because who cares about the air pollution for half a year who has not flown a plane in the sky, that all factories in China were closed, and when there is 25% unemployment in Western countries. We will take care of the polar bear after we find work and close the loans.
The pair of words "Background Diseases" puts all chronic patients at high risk of dying from Corona.
Hypertension, heart disease, cholesterol, smoking, obesity, diabetes. All are diseases that can be prevented by changing habits.
The accessibility of the Internet health system, from an online appointment with a physician to a Kick Box lesson from the telephone, will give a strong impetus to maintaining a healthy lifestyle and together with the advancement in medicine (prediction of morbidity, preventive medicine, genomic medicine and more) will contribute to a stronger increase in life expectancy.
The pandemic will remain seared into the children's minds of 2020 and accompany them into adulthood. If you don't wash your hands you will get Corona. If you have background illness you will be at risk of dying from Corona.
And we haven't talked about the scenario for the virus coming back next year. In this war, the healthy survive.
7. Change in production policy.
The fight against this pandemic and its partial success are the product of knowledge sharing and collaboration between countries and organizations.
At the same time, the first thing that happened with the spread of the virus was the closure of the borders. Each country for itself. Tourists out. Foreign students out. Foreigners return home. Everyone goes back to his or her health care system, health insurance, family, country.
The closure in China, the world's factory, created a global shortage of goods and parts and much of the factories closed or moved to a very limited format.
Companies that rely on Chinese manufacturing such as textiles and electronics, lost entire production lines and had to look for new manufacturers in other countries. The launch of the new iPhone has been postponed, fashion companies are stuck without merchandise for the summer, and in the US the president has instructed companies to increase the production of respirators, only some of the components that make up these respirators are traditionally imported from China and made in the US. The US has lost its production capacity for cheap imports from third world countries.
The obvious conclusion is that countries will bring back some of the home production, certainly in the industries of infrastructure such as telecommunications, health, building, etc., but also industries such as textiles and other products will be dispersed in several countries and some will return to local production, perhaps a little more expensive, but without fear of emergency shortages.
The main casualty of such a move is supposed to be China losing some of the global production pie, but perhaps the corona is the turning point for China to become an exclusive manufacturing country for a state of production, knowledge and services, a change that will upgrade its economy that it seems to have been preparing for this moment for 20 years.
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